When is the next Linux kernel release? What about vX.Y? When is the next merge window? When is the deadline for features for kernel version vX.Y?

Get asked this a lot?

Point the people at this web page for about as accurate answers as anyone's going to be able to give.

The Linux Kernel Tea Leaves is a reimagination of the venerable PHB Crystal Ball, with even more answers based on fewer stats.

https://jnikula.github.io/linux-kernel-tea-leaves/index.html

#linux #kernel

The site's been around for a couple of years now, but I converted the whole thing to Sphinx, with an extension doing the predictions, and added some background info on the kernel development process and predictions.

@jani given that all development cycles since Linux 6.7 were nine weeks long[1], I wonder if it's time to change the phrasing to something like "v6.18 is most likely to be released on 2025-11-30, but might be delayed to 2025-12-07" (okay a bit shorter maybe, but you get the idea)

[1] see screenshot or https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_yH7lFmZxAoSWrtsd8tGu3befG4zIcMnytB1ml4pQQM/edit?gid=1170907286#gid=1170907286&range=A130

@jani just wondering, where is the "Deadline for features heading to vX.Y release in many subsystems, including drm." actually? Between -rc5 and -rc6 somewhere? Or before the latter?

Also wondering if "many" really the right word here, as it feels like only a few handle it like drm does, but well, it's just a feeling.

@kernellogger I was going back and forth with this, to be honest. For a long time now, it was just "The drm subsystem deadline ..." but I wanted to make it more generic. Maybe I should revert back to that.

@kernellogger FWIW, I do expand on this in the new info page.

"There are seven or eight release candidates, more commonly seven."

and

"Whether -rc8 occurs or not is the main source of uncertainty in the predictions."

@kernellogger Oh, and in drm the deadline is somewhere around -rc5 and -rc6, it's usually not that strict.

@kernellogger Reverted back to "The drm subsystem deadline" to avoid any controversy.

Thanks for pointing this out.

@jani

Yes, but...

https://git.kernel.org/pub/scm/linux/kernel/git/mricon/korg-helpers.git/tree/mainline-when.py

:)

@monsieuricon Heh, I don't even want to run a script or ask someone else to run a script. 😉

@jani That's why we have https://www.kernel.org/releases-calendar.ics, though I do understand that not everyone wants to view it in their calendar.

@monsieuricon The drm subsystem deadline for features is also a common date people want to know.