Conversation
Jarkko Sakkinen
jarkko
Edited 10 days ago
The thing with AI and why this IPO feels just "virtual reality" is that AI is migrating to home, as far as consumers are concerned. There's a limited time window to suck the value from proprietary technology.
OpenAI and Anthropic are in pretty much in same situation as Silicon Graphics was in the late 90s.
And it's uncomfortably short distance away, mostly at this point constrained by semiconductor market price, not "forces of the nature". I.e., we are in situation where SaaS based model of providing inference for customers is artificially maitained to be the best option for most of the end users.
This is why trillion evaluations absolutely are out of this world.
OpenAI and Anthropic are in pretty much in same situation as Silicon Graphics was in the late 90s.
And it's uncomfortably short distance away, mostly at this point constrained by semiconductor market price, not "forces of the nature". I.e., we are in situation where SaaS based model of providing inference for customers is artificially maitained to be the best option for most of the end users.
This is why trillion evaluations absolutely are out of this world.
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There's no AGI coming, "dangerous" LLM that might "escape from the lab and enslave the humandkind". There's just a chatbot with a limited applicability i.e., being a fancy search engine. Personally, it drills my brain equally if I have to hate this type of thing as much it would if I had to love it, or enforcibly increase my use of AI. I don't have any feelings e.g., towards my vacuum cleaner. Either of standingpoints would be an artificial value increase.
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Jaakko Niemi
liiwi@mastodon.social@jarkko The "hard mode to intelligence" is still .. in fly brain levels..or well, how many datacenters do we have?
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@liiwi This is still in the area of "unknown unknowns" but we do know already something about spatial models. It comes down to limited aspects of physical reality. If you have spatial understanding in a system that comes at the price of "LLM skills". It would be hard to envision a reality where we would not be having such a "size-fit" problem given not have unlimited resources in this physical reality :-) I don't believe that even in University of Berkeley they would have a magic potion to outsmart these constraints.
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Let's imagine we would model human brain just for the sake of an example. It would be still a finite model. And a finite model can be modeled as a finite state machine. This is at the heart how difficult problem we are talking about here.
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Money involved is most likely at the center. E.g., NVIDIA's return of investment in its plain and raw form with brutal honesty is in fact a figure that I have zero idea of and I don't even know how I would nail that number with public infromation.
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Jaakko Niemi
liiwi@mastodon.social@jarkko I'm thinking more of the eventualities, and I don't see something with identity and consciousness being packaged into a package that can be sold, or well... umm.. saw this good podcast:
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Jaakko Niemi
liiwi@mastodon.social@jarkko Decouple is usually about energy, but I found this intersection rather interesting. It's all feet-in-ground stuff.
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