Donald Trump now the odds-on favourite to win the election.

Well done Joe, your arrogance will hurt the literal entire world. Idiot.

also the enablers I've seen on here treating any critique of Biden as being a Trump supporter - well done - you'll get him elected.

Useful idiots.

The impact of the debate...

@ljs someone tried to tell this gentlemen there is no lord almighty??

@lkundrak well, what about rhesus? 🍷

@ljs he's not almighty but suspected of ocassional tool use and pretty good at brachiation (sometimes falls down)

*shrieks*
*throws mud*

🍷

*is it mud*

@lkundrak *SHRIEK*!

How is he in debates?

@ljs he wins them all
because he shrieks louder
breaks the branches
bangs on the pots
and makes threatening displays

@ljs Cold hard truth. It's as if Biden can't do anything wrong to some. Yes he can: he's an old grandpa and needs to be in a retirement home, playing grandpa golf and slurping grandpa juice. The US needs a strong person as president, and Biden ain't it. I feel like the only person that can still win this election would be Michelle Obama, but she rightfully said she would never do that. If only the US treated its president and their family better (read more humane).

@thomy2000 yeah and now we get a guy who'll capitulate to Russia in Europe.

If Ukraine falls, a NATO country is next. And then what? Especially if the US seems like it won't intervene?

It's hilariously absurd that arrogance and stupidity about a guy obviously being unable to do the job leads to that.

But that's very human being.

@ljs is the y axis iq?

@lkundrak yes

@lkundrak @ljs Oh, I know him! He's running for president of the world!

@ljs @thomy2000 Russia will not invade NATO countries like it invaded Ukraine. They are more likely to install puppet governments first. Hungary and Slovakia are lab rats, and the experiment has been going rather well so far.

@ptesarik @thomy2000 my concern is he might think 'what are they going to do about it?'

With the biggest component of NATO controlled by a guy who is subservient to Russia it's going to be very tempting to roll the dice.

Europe has, up until the invasion of Ukraine, not exactly covered itself in glory on this stuff.

@ptesarik @ljs running?
running?
brother...
brachiating!

@ljs @thomy2000 Ah, you mean they could attack a NATO country as a provocation. Now, thinking about it, yes, that is certainly possible. Especially since NATO (without US) would not do anything about it.

EDIT: They would do something. They would be “deeply concerned”.

@ptesarik @ljs @thomy2000 There's enough people in NATO that understand game theory. So no, Putin won't send ground troops to NATO country in next 3 years (anyone wants to bet?). (But that does not rule out hybrid warfare).

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 yeah all those game theoreticians who calculated very well by capitulating to Putin over and over again.

I think you're living in a fantasy world.

And who is NATO? You realise Trump is likely to give less of a shit in Europe once he's in?

C'mon man

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 Make a prediction, and state odds you are willing to bet on that prediction, so that rest of the world knows what you are talking about..

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 is conditional probability on trump getting in and halting US support for Ukraine.

Anyway let me write a CVE for you

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 I'd probably formulate it as

If Trump wins and if Trump stops ALL support for Ukraine, and Ukraine falls (shortfall not made up), within 5-10 years 50%+ chance of military incursion in NATO state, probably Estonia or Latvia.

Then it'll be up to West to see what the hell they'll do in response. Failure to respond correctly could be disasterous.

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 the 'incursion' will likely not be touted as an invasion but rather some kind of border incursion, 'provocation' or 'special military intervention' in the language of the orcs

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 they may also try to do something with 'not Russian soldiers' and claim it is some extra-governmental organisation nothing to do with them, but with the typical situation that everybody in the world knows exactly who's behind it.

Giving cowards every opportunity to capitulate. Again. This is how it'll be I think.

With plenty of nuclear sabre rattling of course...

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 Note how your prediction does not contradict mine? :-).

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 hm you did at that 3 year clause yes... cheeky!

@ljs @thomy2000 not just human. looks like it's a very ape thing in general

@lkundrak @thomy2000 oh hail Rhesus. Hail Rhesus INDEED. 🍷

*SCREECHING SOUNDS*

@ptesarik @ljs @thomy2000 puppet government now, tanks roll in 15 years later, moscow time

@ljs @thomy2000 *half-demented dominance display*

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 yeah this is another way.

But that's not going to happen to NATO countries, it just won't. They've already experienced this stuff and surprisingly aren't up for it

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 oh no, they won't come uninvited. in fact, they'll come with an invitation letter in their hand, to a country that previously left nato after a 99.8% vote in a people's free referendum

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 yeah but enough about Hungary?

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 I don't disagree that Trump is evil and bad. I just wanted to clarify that there's no short-term danger. Europe is significantly stronger than Russia.

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 yeah the Russian military is fucked atm too, in any direct conventional war with western powers they'd have their arses handed to them.

It's the medium to long term that worries me as Putin has made Russia into a war economy and expansionism is key to his aims...

And concerns that a Putin-like will take over once he dies.

To some degree I think the right move might be for NATO to just send ground troops to Ukraine and secure it, meanwhile bringing Ukraine into NATO.

I continue to not believe for a second his nuclear threats. He won't commit suicide over that.

Can start with western involvement in air strikes.

Sadly Iraq has poisoned Western interested in foreign interventions, even when they are just and necessary.

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel > I continue to not believe for a second his nuclear threats. He won't commit suicide over that.
bro you know why it's called "russian roulette" and not "brazilian roulette", "congolese roulette" or "australian roulette?"

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel bro chill, it's exactly this mentality that causes people to be weak to a bully like Putin.

Send in the troops.

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel australian roulette btw is risking meat on the bbq being raw

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel what mentality

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel "ohhh the Russians they crazy, better not assume sanity!"

Rhesus alive, Putin wants to keep his stolen money

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel lol bro but really they're legit crazy

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel yeah so give in to the bully, that's worked well so far.

'Ohhh they're crazy they might nuke! Let them have Crimea!' etc. etc.

IT DOESN'T WORK.

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel but did i say that? if anything the fact that they might nuke is an extra reason for a stronger military response
because it's not like them keeping crimea will make the wide russian soul less likely to nuke, quite the contrary eventually

@lkundrak @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel so we agree NATO invades? Yes?

Rhesus is watching

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel but let's not pretend czar's medieval mind thoroughly rotten with ideology doesn't have good mechanisms to keep itself as removed from reality as possible

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel yes absolutely

@ljs Iraq and Lybia. 😕

@ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel

@djasa @ptesarik @thomy2000 @pavel Iraq was neither just not necessary, Libya - while I support the removal of a dictator - it's actually highly questionable whether Western intervention was just or necessary there.

A bully threatening the peace of all of Europe is pretty fucking clear.

@ljs @ptesarik @thomy2000 I agree that western involvement in Ukraine would be good.

OTOH I don't worry that much about Russia long-term. Their economy is still weak, and by switching to war-time one they'll just get less effective and will probably collapse. (But collapse of country with nuclear weapons may not be fun :-( ).

@pavel @ptesarik @thomy2000 The big unspoken partner here is China, who shamefully prop Russia up.