Spotted in Woking, UK. We haven't forgotten!

@ljs You guys understand little to nothing. Navalny was just another Muscovian infected with imperialism, not better than those who killed him. The only thing he deserves near his photo is a sandwich. He called Crimea "a sandwich" when he was asked if he'd return it to Ukraine. "Is Crimea a sandwich with sausage to return it back and forth?" was his answer. Just another colonialist moron.

@oleksandr yes I get all of this stuff thanks, well aware, the point is standing up to the oppression of Putin regardless of the rights and wrongs of the guy he had killed and who represented his only viable opposition.

@ljs The thing is that he was not a viable opposition. The only thing he cared about was revealing corruption somewhat. And, as you now, "being an opposition" and "revealing corruption" are not the same things. By reveling corruption a person may actually help a country to be more effective. In case of Muscovy, effectiveness is measured in ability to conduct an imperial war, among other things.

@ljs The last viable opposition was Němcov, but he was killed long time ago, and I do not see people in the so-called "collective West" crying after him. Nowadays, there's no viable opposition in Muscovy. If you want to find one, look for people who talk about how so-called "small nations" within the so-called "federation" are oppressed and what to do about this oppression. Let me know once you find them. They exist, but they do not represent one single body, and often they are emigrants. It will be a long road to have them united and to let them make any visible change.

@oleksandr I think you let your anger about this blind you on some assumption that allies are stupid and don't care (well I think the UK cares a great deal and has shown that over and over again).

Whatever he may or may not have represented it was SOME KIND of opposition who openly criticised Putin, literally spoke to people who were assigned to kill him on the phone, took the piss, etc. etc. in a place where now nothing like this is allowed.

Him dying was an important event either way. And I'm sure those who put this dedication in town meant it sincerely...

@ljs I don't think my anger blinds me since this shit is ongoing for long enough to exhale and think calmly; mind you, we in fact are talking about a period that lasts for at least 350 years. I also think that allies can be stupid in some things, it's not "all or nothing". You guys are also a victim of multi-year propaganda, and it's deeper in your minds than you may realise. Of course, this doesn't prevent me from admiring what UK did and is doing, and hopefully will do for my country. But the thing is that I really don't care about one bitch killing another bitch when both bitches do not want me to exist in the first place. Hence I think you should not care as well, and you should look for good lads elsewhere.

@oleksandr Oleksander I see good lads in all of Ukraine, and support you entirely. Well you can count on me anyway.

I understand the frustration yes.

I totally believe Ukraine deserves to exist, is separate from Russia, and all the land taken by those fucking orcs needs to come back.

Also that Ukraine is a last line of defence before the biggest, ugliest Orc tries to roll the dice with NATO.

Up until now we were terrible cowards...

@oleksandr the biggest earliest error was to pressure Ukraine into accepting the Budapest Memorandum.

If you still had nukes none of this would be happening...

@oleksandr and as usual we see what it means for 'UN promises'.

@ljs That's good and all stuff, but we were talking about looking for good lads in Muscovy. Well, check this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Nations_of_Post-Russia_Forum Have you seen tons of support for this from EU, UK, USA? Except for residence permits.

@ljs For us it was a choice between Clinton killing our state right now with sanctions, or Muscovy killing us with real weapon but much later. Guess what.

@oleksandr yes, it was a fucked situation. Not blaming you, blaming the west.

@ljs @oleksandr Well, if west had balls, they could still ship nukes into Ukraine. Not saying would be good idea, but the side willing to escalate has some great advantage...

@pavel @oleksandr lol fucking hell yeah I think that would be genuinely dangerous, as you get into the calculus of - what if Russia strikes your nuclear convoy conventionally let alone with nukes?

And while I firmly believe Russia won't use nukes except under very extreme circumstances for the simple fact that a thief likes to keep his stuff, this is the kind of situation where a miscalculation could be disasterous.

I think there's a case for involving NATO forces though. Provide an ultimatum, withdraw from Ukraine by X date or we will pound all your artillery positions and obliterate your forces from the air + then maintain air superiority.

I mean what does international law mean without enforcement...

@pavel @oleksandr @ljs well it's not like infrastructure for nuclear defense could be built overnight

@lkundrak @pavel @oleksandr if it's a 'bit much' for the crazed bong ripper from Brno, then you must realise dear Pavel that you may have gone too far

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel oh no, i'm fan of nukes and stuff that gets delivered with a tube lit on one end in general

@lkundrak @oleksandr @pavel it's a big mistake when you confuse the two though you've nearly caused wars before haven't you?

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel sir

@lkundrak @oleksandr @pavel and that's where the Slovakian nuclear programme ended...

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel yeah and the country went on to stash weapons grade idiocy

@ljs @oleksandr There's no such thing as international law. (And NATO would be wrong organization to enforce it). Yes, ultimatum would work, provided Putin believed west is willing to do that.

@pavel @oleksandr NATO is a (nuclear) military alliance not international law enforcers, yes.

We already showed him we'd do things he didn't expect.

And if we destroyed his artillery positions and got air superiority I think he'd have good reason to believe us...

@ljs @oleksandr Yep, western aircraft over Ukraine would be clear sign that west "has balls", and war would be over (with small chance of ... well.. civilisation being over). I actually believe smaller action would be enough, like banning russian chips from Turkey's waters. ("We have balls, and as a demonstration, we are willing to ignore international agreements. Lang connection to Kaliningrad will be next. Sue us :-). ").

@pavel @oleksandr yes I agree with this.

I think too many cowards fear something Russia simply won't do unless we nuked the Russian mainland, frankly.

They of course will threaten it but you don't win against bullies by giving in especially when those threats are bullshit.

We need to get a lot more aggressive and end this stalemate, make it clear that no we're not taking this shit.

You want to think there's a conspiracy against you motherfucker? Want to see what that'd ACTUALLY look like?

@ljs @oleksandr It is hard for democracies to be this kind of "aggresive" unfortunately. Plus, Putin would retaliate, with some terror attacks, and submarine cables cut. Still, it would be good thing.

Anyway, sending strong message would be enough, and there's still plenty of space for that. For example, sending half of czech military equipment to Ukraine now would be good thing (and strong message). We could rely on NATO shelter before rearming...

@pavel @oleksandr I also think it's time to remove all restrictions on kit. Long range missiles, have them.

Fuck Russia, let them reap what they sowed.

@ljs @oleksandr Yes, any military target should be ok. Rules of war should still be respected.

@ljs @oleksandr (Oh and for the record -- and this is quite dangerous thought -- it is unclear if Russia's nukes are still working. You know, they are quite hard to maintain. I would not be surprised if they had 50% failure rate or more. But... this is probably better left untested).

@pavel @oleksandr yes I agree. Actually it's really hard to get a thermonuclear weapon to go off right and you have to constantly maintain all the materials and components... this is a good thing :)

But 50% working, or even 10% or even 1% is enough to cause global catastrophe.

At any rate the country's run by thieves, they won't destroy the world as the stuff they stole is _in the world_ :)

It's the fanatics who are the real risk with that stuff.

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel > they won't destroy the world as the stuff they stole is _in the world_
bro you're just too western

@lkundrak @oleksandr @pavel bro thieves like to keep their shit, and these thieves have a lot of shit. Just logic fam!

@lkundrak @ljs @pavel This. Standard logic does not apply. Follow what P*tin said, literally: "We'll go to paradise, and they'll just cease to live".

@oleksandr @lkundrak @ljs Yes, playing mad (or being mad) has advantages. But giving madman what he wants is also not a solution... Basically ignore Putler's words, they are lies, anyway.

@pavel @oleksandr @ljs As an aside, Russia is not as incompetent as some people want to believe. They're not very good at batch production (because of missing/insufficient quality control), but their nuclear arsenal is essentially custom production. I don't have enough data to estimate how good they are at maintaining this arsenal, but they have some high-profile engineers. It would probably take them only a couple of weeks to fire at least a dozen intercontinental missiles reliably.

@ptesarik @pavel @oleksandr not sure I agree given the deep levels of corruption, underinvestment, etc.

I suspect your perception of high-profile engineers is historic?

No doubt there's competent people involved, but the problem is that nuclear weapons require CONSTANT highly careful maintenance and replacement.

Post-soviet union there was very clearly a huge degradation in this. And of course Russia constantly lie about capabilities, as exposed by their military efforts in Ukraine, which equally somebody such as yourself may have claimed had 'high profile generals' involve in.

Plutonium is surprisingly hard to get to detonate, let alone to get it to detonate a secondary fusion component.

Given supply problems, massive corruption, the lying, the fact anybody with half a brain would have left the country by now... yeah. I suspect very small % of weapons will actually work.

But even so that is enough to end the world so it's moot really.

@ptesarik @oleksandr @ljs Plutium in the cores needs to be taken out every few years and reprocessed. That's not a two-week task, AFAIK.

And in the scenarios we are thinking about (and that would be very bad even if they worked out "good"), they would have 30 minutes of warning, not two weeks :-).

@pavel @ptesarik @oleksandr the plutonium isn't the only issue. The neutron source gas is very volatile and critical to the weapon operating correctly as are many, many other super sensitive and degrading components.

Nuclear weapons are delicate as fuck basically.

@ljs @oleksandr @ptesarik Sure there's a lot more. Plus, you need to deliver the payloads, and launching ICBMs is, literally, rocket science :-).

@pavel @oleksandr @ljs Re 30 minutes: It only means Russians don't believe it's urgent right now. But it would not take them too long to prepare if they decide it's necessary.
Re components: There are still universities in Russia, and academia has some amounts of everything, presumably in decent condition. That's what the military would take (and that's why my estimate of working missiles is so low).

@ptesarik @pavel @oleksandr going to ignore the corruption, funding and sourcing issues?

And re: prep, you really really think it's just something they can 'prioiritise'? It's a massive, massive undertaking requiring tons of extremely intricate work, what are you bloody on about?

You just seem to be a Russia apologist at this point?

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel All I'm saying is that Russians should not be underestimated. They are capable of doing very difficult things; they just can't do them at scale.

@ptesarik @oleksandr @pavel

Bizarre point, firstly a nuclear programme is about as 'at scale' as you can possibly get, secondly nobody is talking about 'Russians' I can't stand this thing of:

1. Criticise a regime
2. 'you get [citizens of country under regime] all wrong!

I'm not talking about Russians, I am married to one by the way, I am talking about the regime, which is incredibly corrupt.

The Russian armed forces in Ukraine have utterly failed on every level. The ONLY reason they are still there is Putin is willing to throw 10's of thousands into certain death every year.

Please do not tie in Russian history in the past to the crap of the current regime or tie the people to it.

It's not a question of people, it's a question of CORRUPTION (you keep ignoring this so capitalising), the industry and facilities required, source materials, etc. etc.

And it's bloody moot, you're being argumentative for no reason, I suspect at least some % of weapons will work, that's enough to end the world.

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel All right, first the terminology. Where I wrote “Russians” in this thread, it referred to the current rulers of Kremlin.

Re Ukrainian war: Russian armed forces have greatly improved in almost all aspects. It's not the same army as two years ago.

Re corruption: First, power is even more important than money. Second, Kremlin rulers actually use corruption to keep their power. They are apparently quite good at that.

Re argument: I'm sorry. I was not trying to argue.

@ptesarik @oleksandr @pavel they've really not improved in 'every respect', the death toll is colossal, they're entrenched and still engaging in massive meat wave attacks.

They're not as appallingly bad as at the start, that is not the same as them suddenly being vastly more capable, they're still using shit tactics but they're heavily dug in with huge mine fields etc.

They also still have all the same old issues as they had before.

The point about their 'improvements' is that if Ukraine is not supplied properly, even with all of the issues with Russian forces they could start to make progress, at huge huge human cost.

Keep in mind the world was convinced this was a grade A world class armed force.

None of this suggests a magical ability to fix an underfunded, corrupted nuclear programme.

Your point on corruption makes no sense, corruption means that when you pay for X you get Y. Yes it is part of how the thieves work, it doesn't mean you get away from the issue.

Anyway none of it changes the fundamentals, if 10% of the nukes work we're fucked. So no need to carry this on cylically...

@ptesarik @oleksandr @pavel e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-68819853

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel Agreed: No point to continue this thread. I think it would take us ages to understand each other this way. One evening in a local pub would be more efficient use of time, and I have some reasons to believe our views are not so far apart as they look from this online discussion.

@ptesarik @oleksandr @pavel yes we can agree on beer being the solution :>)

@ljs @oleksandr @pavel

@ptesarik @oleksandr @pavel been literally months since I had a pint lol.

Health kick man, sad times

@ptesarik @ljs @oleksandr @pavel

Oh, this thread reminds me a quote:

"Russia is never as strong as it seems but it's also never as weak as it seems"

@djasa @ptesarik @oleksandr @pavel yeah but also you're basically strawmanning there because who said they were weak?

I merely said that due to obvious mass corruption, the complexity of the nuclear program, the fact you have to be REALLY on top of that stuff, the underfunding and culture of lies that it's likely a big chunk of nukes just won't work (or will work a lot less effectively than they should).

Also that saying is probably in reference to ww2 really, and people love to forget how critical US funding was to that effort, though Russian soldiers fought valiantly, it was after one of the biggest military collapses in history...

Also that was a fight for survival in their own country. Weird how you don't get sayings like that about their campaign in Afghanistan isn't it??

"The problems with sayings is that they can sound nice but be complete bollocks because you ignore all the nuances" - Lorenzo S, 2024

@djasa @ptesarik @pavel @ljs Mandatory remark for a western reader/writer: in WW2 there were many other nationals fighting valiantly, Ukrainians and Belorusians were among the largest groups.

@oleksandr @djasa @ptesarik @pavel you know I'm super pro Ukraine bro but being historic, weren't you guys on the wrong side for quite a bit of it?

@djasa @ptesarik @pavel @ljs man are you under crack today? what are you talking about even?

@ljs while I do agree with you, I also agree with oleksandr@natalenko.name that Němcov was the more serious and fierce opposition. IMO that's also why Putin eliminated him first.

@scb yes and I appreciate that clarification, I've been made aware of Navalny's rather odious qualities already quite a bit, so the point is less defending him and more 'look what Putin does' and in the face of it we won't be afraid to oppose him.

@oleksandr @djasa @ptesarik @pavel @ljs i've learned to configure sendmail on amphetamines once

@lkundrak @oleksandr @djasa @ptesarik @pavel suspect those would work better than crack for that

@ljs @oleksandr @djasa @ptesarik @pavel wait, crack not an amphetamine? *off to wikipedia* the street names here map poorly to the english nomenclature :(

@oleksandr @djasa @ptesarik @pavel @ljs maybe he confuses with Slovaks
/me hides

@vbabka @oleksandr @djasa @ptesarik @ljs @pavel lol, bro, can assure you slovaks have their own alternate history where they always were the victims